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Jan 30, 2013
01/13
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. >> bottom line, what do you want to do with your money in this environment? do you want to continue on this train of buying stocks or look at it and say, okay, maybe these fundamentals don't add up? >> stocks are still cheap relative to earnings where interest rates are, should be selling would have their proper valuation. i think stocks are 15% to 20% below where they should be? >> nathan, do you agree with that? >> i increased my stock position by 5%, maria. still watching my bonds. there's not much left in bonds. you can only squeeze so much out of this turnip, so you have to look at your bonds and shorten your duration, for sure. >> thanks, everybody. >> yeah. >> okay. >> good conversation. >> never mind. >> it's crazy to say that the -- that the fed is killing the economy with $85 billion in the printing press and stocks are 15% undervalued. i'd love to put those two thoughts together. >> all right. >> you said we're out of time but i'm always ready. >> give me one last point and we'll move on. >> we all have to understand we can look at the micro on eve
. >> bottom line, what do you want to do with your money in this environment? do you want to continue on this train of buying stocks or look at it and say, okay, maybe these fundamentals don't add up? >> stocks are still cheap relative to earnings where interest rates are, should be selling would have their proper valuation. i think stocks are 15% to 20% below where they should be? >> nathan, do you agree with that? >> i increased my stock position by 5%, maria. still...
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Jan 25, 2013
01/13
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and we really see an environment here where it's really going to be a golden age for individual -- >> like which ones? >> stock selection and active managers. >> pin it down. give us some names. >> okay. well, we like the theme of oil by rail. trinity industries which makes cars that move rail. we like a derivative of the housing recovery briggs & stratton. we also like names where there is kind of secular growth opportunities and we see a shoe carnival as a small retailer regardless of what happens with the consumer we think they can really grow their store base and do it all organically. >> got it. >> shoes on a ship? >> shoe carnival. >> marc travis does the dow get back to the record high in the next week or next week or two and then what happens? >> you know, i would hesitate to annualize up 6% for january. you know, i'm like eric. i'm searching for equity securities where there is a discount between price and value. i would differ a little bit with eric in the small cap space. if you look at the russel 2000 it trades at 16 times operating income. the inverse of that is 6.25, whi
and we really see an environment here where it's really going to be a golden age for individual -- >> like which ones? >> stock selection and active managers. >> pin it down. give us some names. >> okay. well, we like the theme of oil by rail. trinity industries which makes cars that move rail. we like a derivative of the housing recovery briggs & stratton. we also like names where there is kind of secular growth opportunities and we see a shoe carnival as a small...
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Feb 1, 2013
02/13
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we see that environment sticking but the reflation effort by the fed the bank of england, bank of japan, all bad for the long end of the u.s. yield curve. pimco is avoiding longer data issues beyond ten years. we'd rather stick to the five to ten-year part of the yield curve. >> you paint a scenario in which somebody watching would say well that is exactly the scenario i see if i think the stock market is going to go noticeably higher and yet you guys aren't looking for double digit gains this year for the dow. >> this is also a relative gain. there are better opportunities we think where you're safer and there is the potential for volatility still because of macro risks of course. and to see stocks continue moving upward reminds us that the financial market performance is continuing to diverge from economic performance. the employment report while good is still not great. we want to monitor to the extent to which markets move away from the way economies perform because that will set up dangers in the future. >> you have to admit, the economy save for the shockingly disappointing gdp re
we see that environment sticking but the reflation effort by the fed the bank of england, bank of japan, all bad for the long end of the u.s. yield curve. pimco is avoiding longer data issues beyond ten years. we'd rather stick to the five to ten-year part of the yield curve. >> you paint a scenario in which somebody watching would say well that is exactly the scenario i see if i think the stock market is going to go noticeably higher and yet you guys aren't looking for double digit gains...
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Jan 24, 2013
01/13
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. >> gina, let's talk about the macro environment. it is getting better. and what the market looks for is those -- those incremental data points, the new pieces of news. whether they're actually really good or just a little bit better than people expected or better than bad. so where are your thoughts on the economy, here in the states as well as globally, and how do you position for that? >> right. so when we look at the broader economic landscape, we use the leading economic indicators index which improved a touch in december. but it is still down on a year over year basis. or decelerating i should say on a year over year basis, tends to be the best leading indicator of earnings growth for the s&p 500 over time. i think unfortunately this is all perceptions with respect to the economic data. instead the leis are continuing to decelerate. some of the leading indicators have done a little bit of better in the december, november, december period versus the prior three months. but on the longer term scale, we see this ongoing desell ration. >> you don't thin
. >> gina, let's talk about the macro environment. it is getting better. and what the market looks for is those -- those incremental data points, the new pieces of news. whether they're actually really good or just a little bit better than people expected or better than bad. so where are your thoughts on the economy, here in the states as well as globally, and how do you position for that? >> right. so when we look at the broader economic landscape, we use the leading economic...
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Jan 29, 2013
01/13
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so the pricing environment in the u.s. still seems to be a very healthy investor expectations through 2013. >> bill? >> one last question, bob. is our ford shares -- are ford shares fully valued? i know you aren't in the position of commenting on how people are treating your stock but a lot of wall street is saying we don't see a reason to get into this stock or this company or any auto makers for the foreseeable future. >> yeah, well what's driving a total shareholder return? first it starts with growth and we do expect to grow in 2013 and beyond. second it's ebitda margin and we have guided to a margin that is about flat to perhaps slightly lower. and that's more than explained by our european operations which were in the process of restructuring and will generate a positive contribution to the company by mid decade. then lastly dividends. we just doubled our dividend. we are expecting to have stronger cash flow in 2013 than 2012. we think we've got all the pieces there for growth and total shareholder return. i think it
so the pricing environment in the u.s. still seems to be a very healthy investor expectations through 2013. >> bill? >> one last question, bob. is our ford shares -- are ford shares fully valued? i know you aren't in the position of commenting on how people are treating your stock but a lot of wall street is saying we don't see a reason to get into this stock or this company or any auto makers for the foreseeable future. >> yeah, well what's driving a total shareholder return?...
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Jan 29, 2013
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. >> the environment there continues to be very, very tough. we do think, perhaps, it's a trough in '12 and '13 but we'll have to wait and see. >> that's the bad news. the good news for ford continues to be in north america. look at the profits, $1.872 billion in the fourth quarter. that's almost a billion dollars more than the fourth quarter last year. profit margins above 10%. that's impressive especially in an auto industry where 7 and 8% in north america used to be considered good. what's driving north america, stronger pricing, stronger sales. the profit margins, however, this is one thing that concerns people, the profit margins are expected to stay level in 2013, not grow in north america. still over 10% is impressive for a company a few years ago had no profit margins. >> very good point. phil, thank you. twinkies, one step closer to a new home. private firm apollo and metro polos a looking at a deal to buy from hostess. they are reporting that bid will be more than $400 million. so far everyone involved has declined to comment. we are
. >> the environment there continues to be very, very tough. we do think, perhaps, it's a trough in '12 and '13 but we'll have to wait and see. >> that's the bad news. the good news for ford continues to be in north america. look at the profits, $1.872 billion in the fourth quarter. that's almost a billion dollars more than the fourth quarter last year. profit margins above 10%. that's impressive especially in an auto industry where 7 and 8% in north america used to be considered...
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Feb 1, 2013
02/13
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. >> so it creates a competitive environment? >> the most and it's great for their reputation, their reel and it's wonderful when you can go and do business pictures and you have this repertoire of great iconic ads that you've done. >> you own many agencies now. which one do you like most? it's saying which child do you like better, but -- >> 72 and sunny was one of our two new agencies that we acquired a partnership interest. they're awarded agency of the year. they're the ones who did the samsung spots that were really iconic in terms of their impact. >> yeah. >> and it was phenomenal. so we're lucky. we have six extraordinary agencies out of the 60 that are -- >> chrispin, of course, was for many years the hottest. >> and a new firm called the anomaly. >> do these things go in cycles? >> probably. probably. but i think -- >> is that part of your model, though? >> it's the back entrepreneurial firms who understand how consumers consume input in an evolving and emerging technolei technologyal environment. but the one thing i wil
. >> so it creates a competitive environment? >> the most and it's great for their reputation, their reel and it's wonderful when you can go and do business pictures and you have this repertoire of great iconic ads that you've done. >> you own many agencies now. which one do you like most? it's saying which child do you like better, but -- >> 72 and sunny was one of our two new agencies that we acquired a partnership interest. they're awarded agency of the year. they're...
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Jan 24, 2013
01/13
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that you need long-term stable environments. because when we look into plants or other investments we look out 10, 15 years. >> sounds like you're saying it was a mistake to make this speech. >> i'm not saying anything. you're asking me how do i believe investment positions could be affected. >> the other topic we've been talking about has been energy and energy policy in the united states. and it was making me think given the possibility of fracking and shale and everything else going on, does that give you any sense that you would make additional investments in the united states? >> andrew, already done. i think what we've seen in the united states is a great example that the energy direction of the united states is really competitiveness agenda. we see reindustrialization initiatives already happening. chemicals are coming back to the u.s. we will see further industrial build-out coming back to the united states. for us in twofolds it's a great growth business opportunities, for big and most modern gas turbine plant which we
that you need long-term stable environments. because when we look into plants or other investments we look out 10, 15 years. >> sounds like you're saying it was a mistake to make this speech. >> i'm not saying anything. you're asking me how do i believe investment positions could be affected. >> the other topic we've been talking about has been energy and energy policy in the united states. and it was making me think given the possibility of fracking and shale and everything...
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Jan 25, 2013
01/13
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>> the commodity environment we saw the last few years. certainly a better environment from a foreign exchange standpoint. multinational company earning profits. >> forex. and europe is better? >> europe, northern europe is pretty good. southern europe is still a challenge, because your previous guest would indicate. >> all right. you don't sell a lot of soap in certain countries over there. no, i'm kidding! i don't mean to -- i don't mean, you know, deodorant in one country in particular. let me think, anything else, jon, china? how's asia? >> asia is good. china is good. we grew high single digits in china. we expect that to accelerate as the year progresses. so generally our developing market business is very healthy. we grew 7% overall. 11% in the brick markets. over 20% in brazil and india. so that continues to be where a disproportionate amount of growth is coming. at the same time we're strengthening our develop market business which is starting to accelerate a little bit. >> thanks, john. hope to see you again next quarter so we ca
>> the commodity environment we saw the last few years. certainly a better environment from a foreign exchange standpoint. multinational company earning profits. >> forex. and europe is better? >> europe, northern europe is pretty good. southern europe is still a challenge, because your previous guest would indicate. >> all right. you don't sell a lot of soap in certain countries over there. no, i'm kidding! i don't mean to -- i don't mean, you know, deodorant in one...
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Jan 28, 2013
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that's a shocking environment for stocks. stocks fell 10% to 15%. >> but still we've had people say that we can still do 4%. that that's just normal. that's just normalized -- >> over time. >> long-term yield. there would be some trepidation initially but that's not going to be something that would -- >> -- health environment -- >> >> we're going to get a lousy gdp number. >> but that should be backward looking. hopefully the market knows this is in the past, this isn't now. i think all the sentiments this week we have them from every country i think except japan business sentiment surveys coming out. that's a much more forward looking indicator. we're going to be watching that and housing. those are going to drive things as well as talking about earnings. we have 20% of the week. that's going to be a lot -- >> -- of the earnings season. now is when stocks usually begin to slide after a 4% rally in the two weeks before and al alcoa we could be hitting a rough patch as well. >> you've got a big lump money and you're like -- >>
that's a shocking environment for stocks. stocks fell 10% to 15%. >> but still we've had people say that we can still do 4%. that that's just normal. that's just normalized -- >> over time. >> long-term yield. there would be some trepidation initially but that's not going to be something that would -- >> -- health environment -- >> >> we're going to get a lousy gdp number. >> but that should be backward looking. hopefully the market knows this is in the...
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Jan 29, 2013
01/13
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one is we still want an environment and policies that support medical innovation. two, we want to also make sure that we have policies that support the improvement of the quality of health care in this country. and third, we also want policies that support the competitiveness of u.s. businesses. if we're able to generate policies that engender that and foster that kind of general we think we can have a very conducive pharmaceutical industry and biotech industry in this country. >> i have a question for you. this is a layman's question. are you finding, what's the split of revenue for domestic versus international and are you growing faster domestically or internationally and in the international markets you face a lot of regulatory pressure that you don't that's different than what you see here? that's three questions in one. >> today our business is split about 50/50. half the business in the u.s., and half outside the u.s. from a regulatory standpoint we've seen a harmonization between the u.s. and europe. obviously in some of the more developed markets like chin
one is we still want an environment and policies that support medical innovation. two, we want to also make sure that we have policies that support the improvement of the quality of health care in this country. and third, we also want policies that support the competitiveness of u.s. businesses. if we're able to generate policies that engender that and foster that kind of general we think we can have a very conducive pharmaceutical industry and biotech industry in this country. >> i have...
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Jan 30, 2013
01/13
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i think that the low interest rate environment is not over for the long end of the market. i think that there's a possibility that we haven't even seen the low on the ten-year yield. you know -- >> what? >> a lot of stuff has to happen for that. >> nothing good. >> well, probably nothing good. no. i think we are reacting, you know, part of the -- one of the reasons that the market started it come down over the last few weeks was an interpretation of the minutes from the latest fed meeting that were taken as somewhat hawkish which i think was just a matter of a misinterpretation of the fed rather than the fed being hawkish. the fed in december did the most accommodative thing they have ever done. you know, they told us they'll be buying for some amount of time, $85 billion securities every month. and take the -- the balance sheet from the $2.9 trillion that it ended the year at, up, you know, annualized rate of an additional trillion. now the -- the key is the fed doesn't know how long that will go. it's tied to the progress in the labor market. but you know, i don't think t
i think that the low interest rate environment is not over for the long end of the market. i think that there's a possibility that we haven't even seen the low on the ten-year yield. you know -- >> what? >> a lot of stuff has to happen for that. >> nothing good. >> well, probably nothing good. no. i think we are reacting, you know, part of the -- one of the reasons that the market started it come down over the last few weeks was an interpretation of the minutes from the...
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Jan 31, 2013
01/13
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what do you do in that environment? you make sure you're figuring out ways to grow organically. you make sure that you're continuing to be lean in your performance as best as possible. and you look at your portfolio. >> steve real quick in the board room confidence level if confidence was off the charts in 2007 at one to ten they were at a ten, what is it now? >> i think right now, six. and an opportunity, i'm really feeling some optimism, people think we're going to get it together in this country. >> steve thank you for being here this morning. >> thanks for having me. >> appreciate it very much. >> coming up, "squawk" is going to -- didn't have time top i tried to get some yes. tomorrow we have the kansas drummer. you really cleaned yourself up from when you were the guitar player for yes, steve howe, and the pitcher that actually he's dead i think so you're doing a lot better than him. >> i live a cleaner life. >> than either steve howe. tyler mathisen will join us to talk about his new documentary, speaking of steve howe. debt. it's a living. >>> tomorrow on "squawk box," i
what do you do in that environment? you make sure you're figuring out ways to grow organically. you make sure that you're continuing to be lean in your performance as best as possible. and you look at your portfolio. >> steve real quick in the board room confidence level if confidence was off the charts in 2007 at one to ten they were at a ten, what is it now? >> i think right now, six. and an opportunity, i'm really feeling some optimism, people think we're going to get it together...
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Feb 1, 2013
02/13
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the subprime leaching into the environment. that hasn't happened here anywhere. as you noted, companies are leaner, meaner, and as a result, can handle any kind of volatility much better. they've learned, unfortunately, through a very bad experience how to do that. number three, parts of the world are not participating. europe economically, china picking up now from a lower point, countries like india struggling. so there are other parts of the world that could do better and join in on the earnings growth. the last one, an an important one, is what are your comparative yields elsewhere. where are your alternatives in terms of investing. and the valuation today, if you look at what we call the normalized earnings gap, take 10-year average earnings, inverted pe, you look at the bond yield five years into the future based on futures contract, you're at a level now that would argue 97% of the market gains in the next six months. >> let me pick up on that yield argument. because the logical conclusion, as sure as day follows night, from what you're saying, this optimi
the subprime leaching into the environment. that hasn't happened here anywhere. as you noted, companies are leaner, meaner, and as a result, can handle any kind of volatility much better. they've learned, unfortunately, through a very bad experience how to do that. number three, parts of the world are not participating. europe economically, china picking up now from a lower point, countries like india struggling. so there are other parts of the world that could do better and join in on the...
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Jan 25, 2013
01/13
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we need to protect their environment. we have a strict quarantine system to protect the integrity of the environment. forty years on, it's still a class-a nature reserve. it's our job to look after them. ...it's my job to look after it. ♪ >>> good morning. welcome back to "squawk on the street." look at shares of halliburton, popping higher after releasing the fourth quarter earnings report. revenue higher than expectations as well. comments on the outlook contributing to gains today. the company saying it sees 2013 eastern hemisphere margins averaging in the upper teens. that forecast better than expectations. the stock popping more than 4%. >> thank you very much, jackie. in the last 30 minutes, bright horizons family solutions surged on the big board debut at the nyse. bfam is the ticker. currently trading, up $6.25. joining us on a first cnbc interview, david lissy. good morning. congratulations. >> good morning, simon. good to be here. >> you had a two-week road show. how difficult a sale was this to people? >> we'
we need to protect their environment. we have a strict quarantine system to protect the integrity of the environment. forty years on, it's still a class-a nature reserve. it's our job to look after them. ...it's my job to look after it. ♪ >>> good morning. welcome back to "squawk on the street." look at shares of halliburton, popping higher after releasing the fourth quarter earnings report. revenue higher than expectations as well. comments on the outlook contributing to...
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Jan 29, 2013
01/13
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as i said at the outsaid, the environment is only getting tougher. to a certaindegree, yes, it is. >> when would you see empirical data suggesting that the tide is turning, though? i mean, would share -- i mean, would the end of share loss when it comes to the digital ad market, is that in the near future? >> no. i mean, look, google, it's growing somewhere between 30% and 40%. facebook around the same level. it's going to take a while for facebook to -- for yahoo! excuse me, to go from negative 5 to a positive. we think sometime by the end of this year, they may be flat to maybe slightly up. you know, we're not holding our breath on them growing as fast, or even faster than the industry as management continues to believe that they will be able to do. but in the meantime, we'll be looking at engagement to see month-to-month engagement, particularly on the mobile side. and also try to figure out or try to see the rollout of new products. that will be a precursor to them doing well over time. >> amazon, that's a big report we're all looking forward to
as i said at the outsaid, the environment is only getting tougher. to a certaindegree, yes, it is. >> when would you see empirical data suggesting that the tide is turning, though? i mean, would share -- i mean, would the end of share loss when it comes to the digital ad market, is that in the near future? >> no. i mean, look, google, it's growing somewhere between 30% and 40%. facebook around the same level. it's going to take a while for facebook to -- for yahoo! excuse me, to go...
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Jan 31, 2013
01/13
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in terms of the environment for a housing ipo, this could be a very good day. already, they had to increase the size of the offering they prize above the range, $17, putting the valuation of the company more than $500 million t is going to trade at the post right behind us, we will get the inside scoop on where this thing looks like it will open. >> california this is a california home builder, san francisco area. also southern. look, when you go to the website, they are selling them like hot cakes. >> single-family homes. >> what does that say? california home builder going public? >> my, how far we've come. >> pulte's down, jim. >> pulte is down, jim. >> thank you. thank you for that wet blanket. that wet electric blanket. >> a wet signed blanket. >> anything else you need me to tell you? >> whatever you want. >> speaking of housing, we are going to talk to fettig from whirlpool in the 11 this morning. pricing is getting better but volume is not matching at all what new homes are doing. >> surprising, low single digits, the companies make a lot of money. they
in terms of the environment for a housing ipo, this could be a very good day. already, they had to increase the size of the offering they prize above the range, $17, putting the valuation of the company more than $500 million t is going to trade at the post right behind us, we will get the inside scoop on where this thing looks like it will open. >> california this is a california home builder, san francisco area. also southern. look, when you go to the website, they are selling them like...
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Jan 24, 2013
01/13
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now we've got the right costs for the new environment we're in. and is this a cross to the board picture? >> definitely. banking ultimately is such for the underlying economy. so i think it doesn't take an economy to tell us that the next couple of years is going to be choppy and not the growth we've had for the last 20 years. banking has to go back to basics. fist, think about your revenue and cost base. here on the cost base, huge improvements. they've always been unmanaged because the revenue is growing so, you know, clearly matched to pay people twice as much as we have to. today, people working from i.t. to legal to front office staff to traders, everyone in my view is clearly overbased. given the number of job opportunities that are there, i think banks cap capitalization. they should tell management, cut your costs. and i am sure people would be very happy. >> we're going to see a lot more come on the compensation levels. how should they measure compensation? particularly in banking? >> certainly. so first of all, up to now in investment ba
now we've got the right costs for the new environment we're in. and is this a cross to the board picture? >> definitely. banking ultimately is such for the underlying economy. so i think it doesn't take an economy to tell us that the next couple of years is going to be choppy and not the growth we've had for the last 20 years. banking has to go back to basics. fist, think about your revenue and cost base. here on the cost base, huge improvements. they've always been unmanaged because the...